INFLATION WITH FOOD SHORTAGE AND PRICE HIKE IS WORST ENEMY

Inflation has now joined up with food shortage and the oil price hike as the common enemies of mankind. Every inhabitant of this planet including ourselves will suffer because of them. The chief cause of these problems seems to be the weakness of the dollar. In our own country, gasoline prices went up for us by 20% this week, and this is being followed by a cascade of other price increases that will wipe out the salary increases yet to be paid beginning the end of July. But that is not the end. We must brace up for more.

Inflation is now the principal problem of all governments around the world – except apparently ours (in spite of the efforts of Central Bank Governor Manou Bheenick) – have to face. In a move to stem inflation in Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates. This will lead to a worsening of the dollar position, and therefore, because oil is traded in dollars, its price will go up, continuing the chain reaction of further price increases for everything around the world.

It must also be admitted that it is not just the weakness of the dollar that is at the root of the oil price hike. There is also the question of threats to the continued availability of the product from rebel activity in, for instance, Nigeria and Iraq, and also the possibility of an attack on Iran. Following an American warning the danger of a unilateral Israeli attack has perhaps receded; were that to happen, all hell would be let loose throughout the world. The wording of the American warning does not entirely discount an attack – that will happen some day; many think that Bush and Cheney are getting ready to strike before leaving office in January next. They will probably abstain from any action until the election in November in order not to adversely affect the chances of Senator John McCain, but look out for trouble in December.

The fuel price hike is bringing protests right round the world. Shipping companies, airlines and road hauliers are all being very seriously affected; economic activity will go down, and life will become very difficult for all of us. The poorest are in the greatest danger. The United Nations have already warned that millions in Africa are threatened with famine.  This week two million truckers have joined in a protest strike in India and no goods are moving in the country. Imagine the suffering that this action is causing to the population.

These problems only serve to remind us how late we are ourselves in this country in developing aspects of our economic autonomy – in food, energy and water. Outdated concepts of property rights have been allowed to get in the way of national strategic interests. Private companies are allowed to decide what they will produce with their land and to whom they will sell it – without any reference to the government. These are matters that affect the vital interests of the country and the government has not only a right but a duty to poke its nose in their business and inform itself of what they are doing, intervening in their decisions if it should deem it necessary. The utilisation of our land is as strategically important to us as the production of nuclear weapons is to the United States; American companies may not dispose of their production capacity as they please, nor should our land owners be allowed to do so.

Minister Abu Kasenally has some very interesting ideas about the exploitation of solar energy and it would seem that he is not being allowed to put them into practice, pending superior advice from foreign advisers. We hope this is not true. We recall his idea of distributing digital television, a hundred channels of the stuff if I remember rightly, through the CEB network but that came to nought. We have never been told why. We are also surprised to learn that our national alcohol producer is still awaiting a government clearance to launch into the full-scale production of ethanol for use as a component of car fuel. We would have thought that government would have been exhorting early production and distribution of the product, and not actually delaying the process. Whatever is happening in our country! Is it a case, as Dickens would have said, of wheels within wheels?

We have heard recently that a scheme of government action for the ridiculously- named “Ile Maurice-Ile Durable” concept was laid out in Paris. We have not seen anything of that here. Are we so unimportant in this matter that concerns our lives so vitally? It would also seem that we are running out of English vocabulary. As far as I know, we are a long way from running out of Mauritian talent. Just let the young people loose and see what they achieve!

In America, politicking is continuing in a low key

The most important reportable event of the last seven days was that Senators Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton joined together on the same rostrum in a show of unity to campaign in favour Senator Obama’s presidential candidacy. They both made a good show of it. Former President Bill Clinton was not there himself because he was on some mission abroad, but he did speak with Senator Obama later by phone in what was reported to be a good converstation.

Senator McCain has travelled to Columbia, apparently in a bid to improve his chances with the Latino component of the electorate. By pure coincidence, during his visit there the Columbian army liberated Ingrid Betancour, a former presidential candidate who was taken hostage by the rebel group FARC six years ago. This high-profile action has been welcomed around the world. President Sarkozy of France had made the liberation of Betancour, who acquired French nationality by marriage, an important objective of his presidency, and efforts by him earlier had not succeeded. There is now much rejoicing in France on the results of the Columbian action.

We will forget about the details of Senator Obama's activities this week to mention instead that the African-American sisters Venus and Serena Williams will be the Wimbledon finalists on Saturday. This is the third time that they have brought off this extraordinary event. For many, this is more important than Senator Obama's becoming President of America. But their father Richard Williams is catching a flight back home today; he can’t watch, he says, when his two daughter play against each other in earnest.  

Turkey: A life and death struggle for the soul of the country

Some time ago we reported that the Supreme Court had overturned a government decision to lift a ban on the wearing of headscarves in universities and government offices. That ban had been imposed by a secularist government which prided itself as being the heirs of Kemal Atturturk, the founder of the modern Turkish Republic following the demise of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I. Now we have the ridiculous situation where a girl student can wear a scarf in a British or American University but not in a Turkish one.

The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is in power in the country today, is the descendant of the former fundamentalist movement of Turkey, but it claims that it has given up all its fundamentalist goals. In any case it has acquired legitimacy in the country by being voted into power by 47% of the electorate. But the secularists have not lost hope; they wish to wrest power back by any constitutional means possible. They have already won the first round by re-imposing the ban on the wearing of headscarves. Encouraged by this success, they have brought a case in court asking for the banning of the governing party itself, alleging that its principles are counter to the secularism at the foundation of the republic. This is a most serious onslaught, and should it succeed, is likely to light the fire of a revolution in the country. Watch this space.

The Middle East

Israel and Hizbullah are engaged in an exchange of prisoners. Israel will hand back some living prisoners, and will receive the remains of some soldiers in return. On a separate issue, it is now becoming clear that Israel and Syria are really engaged in secret negotiations about the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967 in the six-day war. In Lebanon, inspite of the agreement reached with Hezbullah last month, the parliamentary majority leader, Saad Hariri, has not yet been able to form a government of national unity.

In a surprise move, the Chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has warned Israel against attacking Iran at the present time. Rumours of such an attack had become rife after Israel held an exercise in the Mediterranean recently, sending oil prices rocketing sky-high. “... from the United States’ perspective, the United States’ military perspective in particular,” the Admiral said, “opening of a third front right now would be extremely stressful on us”. President Bush and Vice-President Cheney seem to have come to the realisation that their power is not unlimited after all, and have agreed to put off their action for a while.

The Subcontinent: Addressing climate change

The countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) are meeting in the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka to discuss steps to combat climate change. India has itself unveiled a plan for its own action, focused on the use of solar energy in future. But it has not indicated any intention of using less fossil fuel – in order not to hamper the development of Indian citizens most of whom are very poor. The seven SAARC countries have agreed an action plan to combat climate change and have called upon rich countries to accept responsibility for their contribution to global pollution leading to this change. They have recognized the danger that climate change poses to their populations and agreed to exchange data on climate change among themselves.

The Shri Amarnath Shrine Problem

Readers will recall the problems which arose in Kashmir last week when the State government, under Chief Minister Gulam Nabee Azad, transferred 40 hectares of land to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board, to assist them into making proper arrangements for the hundreds of thousands of Hindu pilgrims who, for centuries, have been visiting the shrine every year. The protests were initiated by environmentalists but were picked up by the anti-India and even the mainly pro-India political parties who saw in the State government’s move a surreptitious measure to create space for Hindu settlements. The land transfer served to unite all the various Muslim parties which had till then been quarrelling among themselves, with their political action against India having practically fizzled out.

Faced against this united move, the State government, apparently on instructions from the Congress Party headquarters in Delhi, backed down and cancelled the transfer. Now that the Kashmiris have discovered the strength of their unity, there is no doubt more to come.

Hindus are naturally outraged, and agitations have been launched throughout the country. They compare the treatment they are being given in connection with this pilgrimage site unfavourably with the extraordinary facilities granted by the government for the Haj pilgrimage to Mecca. Some history will help younger readers understand the issues involved.

Way back in the last millennium, after the initial phase of conquest, the Muslims settled down peacefully in Kashmir with a brand of Sufism which came to be called Kashmiriyat, living at peace with their Hindu neighbours (the Pandits, as they were called). At independence time, the ruler of Kashmir, then a princely state like so many others in the Subcontinent, decided to accede to India in spite of the fact that his state had a Muslim majority population. This did not go down well with Pakistan nor with many Kashmiris themselves. Pakistan sent militants across the border and Mr Nehru, the Indian Prime Minister, went sick. Lord Mountbatten, the former Viceroy who had become the Governor-General of both India and Pakistan, organised the defence action. But before this could be completed, Mr Nehru got up from bed and rushed to the United Nations. 

A cease-fire was called, and much of Kashmir was left under Pakistani control. Very significantly, a large swathe of territory that separated India from the rest of the world and which served to join Pakistan with China was abandoned. That was when Kashmir was lost – irretrievably so. Subsequent efforts at keeping it within India have been a waste of effort and of scarce resources, except for the fact that the Pandits, descendants of the original Aryans of lndia who, with the Dravidians of the South, laid the foundations of Hinduism and Hindu way of life thousands of years ago, were still living in the state which was of course their homeland.

The significance of the belt of territory under Pakistani control needs to be clarified. Kashmir has a frontier with Afghanistan. Kabul, the capital of that country, is not far from Delhi by air. During the few days of Independence before its Pakistani occupation, an aircraft could fly directly from India to Afghanistan and across that country on to Russia and Europe without having to overfly Pakistani territory. After Mr Nehru’s action an aircraft from Delhi must fly south to Mumbai, up north again in the Arabian Sea and across Iran to get to Kabul. To put this in perspective for Mauritian reader, it like having, for an errand from Bell Village to the City Centre in Port Louis, to travel all the way to Moka and St Pierre and then to Port Louis via Long Mountain and Terre Rouge.

Another important consequence of abandoning part of the Kashmiri territory is that Pakistan and China, two countries who have been unfriendly to India in the past, have completely surrounded India. China has been given a direct land route from Beijing to Karachi, and is even building a port on the Arabian Sea. Combine this with the port facilities in Burma, Diego Garcia and Port Louis (Tian Li), and what you will find is India is encircled all round.

Kashmir has been governed by allies of the Congress ever since Independence except when it is ruled directly from Delhi; some acts of serious mismanagement were even committed – Sheikh Abdullah, the first Chief Minister, also known as the Lion of Kashmir, was even put under house arrest outside the state. But the one most significant thing that has been allowed was the expulsion of Hindus from the state – the most important act of ethnic cleansing in the post-War world. The Pandits are now refugees in other parts of India. With the sort of reaction that has greeted the Amarnath Shrine episode, it does not seem likely that they will ever be allowed back to the State; governments may agree on certain measures but it is the neighbours who decide whether you live in peace or not. Kashmiriyat has gone to the winds

The Indo-US Nuclear Deal

This much talked about agreement is the most important project that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has worked on for India during his tenure as Prime Minister. He was of course the architect of the paradigm change that took the country out of Nehruvian socialism into its modern liberalised economic system. Billions of Indians will thank him for this for millennia to come – just as across the border, billions of Chinese will thank leader Deng Xiaoping for this vision that the colour of a cat does not matter as long as it catches mice.

Regrettably, Shri Manmohan Singh’s project has run into trouble. The main opposition party, the BJP, oppose it just on the grounds of political opportunism and sheer cussedness. The left parties, allies of the Congress who are vital for the continuation of that party in power, oppose it on ideological grounds, because they are stuck in Cold War history: they are basically anti-American, and still dream of a world where the Soviet Union and China counterbalance the power of the United States. They have decided to withdraw their support from the government and provoke  national elections the day a decision is taken towards the ratification of the agreement.

In recent days Shri Manmohan Singh has persuaded another party, the Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party) to help him pass the bill in Parliament. It looks as the deal may go through – except the latest news is that Muslims have now joined the Left Parties in opposing the deal: they also are opposed to the country joining the American camp. It is now becoming clear that a new Cold War situation is developing in the world, with America as one clear pole, and a confused assortment of groups, not countries, as the other pole. The radically-inclined Indian Muslims are strongly opposed to America, but the great majority of them are neutral; it would be difficult for them to declare themselves pro-American, given the kind of anti-Muslim language that emanates from America.

It is worth looking at some of the key points of the deal. Ever since the first nuclear test in Pokhran in 1974, India has been treated like something of a pariah state. The situation worsened after the second Pokhran tests in 1998 under the BJP government. Some of the sanctions imposed have been lifted, but the pariah status has not been entirely cleared. The main achievement of the Indo-US nuclear deal is to bring India openly and frankly into the fold of “civilised” nations with the right to conduct nuclear experiments and develop nuclear power without being charged with hostile intentions as is the case now with Iran. Indians say that the agreement will not prevent them from carrying nuclear tests under their separate military nuclear programme. The US will also, if the agreement is ratified, help India obtain fuel from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a select group of countries including UK, France and Russia that transfer nuclear fuel among themselves. The US will itself transfer low enriched uranium to India for use in civil nuclear reactors. But now, those opposed to America are saying that India does not need American uranium as it has plenty of its own.

Shri Manmohan Singh seems prepared to sign the deal even if he has to go to elections after that – he has just arranged a massive financial assistance programme for indebted farmers, and thinks he can bring it off. We don’t know what party boss Sonia Gandhi thinks, though. We shall watch developments with great interest.

Pakistan: The new government celebrates 100 days in power

Regrettably it does not have much to show for it. President Musharraf is still very much around, and the deposed Chief Justice and his sixty colleagues still out of their jobs. True, they have been paid their salaries, but somebody has brought a petition against that in the Supreme Court; given that the present judiciary was handpicked by President Musharraf, one cannot forecast the outcome of that appeal by relying on the normal principles of justice. But Prime Minister Gilani has said his government will not allow a handful of extremists impose their views on the vast majority of Pakistanis who wish to pursue a moderate way of life.

Speaking to a group of Americans and Britons of Pakistani origin, he said he was “engaged in a process of strengthening democratic norms, establishing parliamentary supremacy and restoring the 1973 Constitution (framed by former leader Zulficar Ali Bhutto who was hanged by military dictator Zia Ul Haq on trumped-up charges.)

For the first time ever, the chapter headings of the military budget was presented to parliamentarians last week. Prior to this, the military budget was never brought to Parliament for discussion. In fact, much of the economic activity in Pakistan is run by the military, and normal competition for goods and services does not exist. The new government would like to reassert the supremacy of the civilian administration over the military. Their degree of success will also be a measure of the progress of democracy in the country.

The unrest in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) adjoining Afghanistan has extended to the North West Frontier Province. The government is of the view that the trouble is being caused by foreigners – namely remnants of the crowds from other Islamic countries that came to help America and their allies the Taliban fight off the Soviets and their agents in Afghanistan, and that included volunteers from the Middle East, North Africa, South East Asia and Chechnya.

The Foreign Minister of Pakistan is visiting New Delhi this weekend, but nothing much is expected to come from that. Perhaps the most important foreign relations issue facing Pakistan is its relation with the United States. The cradle of terrorism today is in the boundary area straddling Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Americans would like to take their own action in both countries; Afghanistan has no objection, but the Pakistani population will never agree to having Americans soldiers in Pakistan. The government of the country is faced with squaring this circle.

National Affairs: The MBC and Rodrigues

While there are many things to say about our own affairs, we are constrained by space considerations. But we would like to mention that a newsreader of the 7:30 evening bulletin recently referred to the Rodriguans as “nos voisins”. Is this official policy? We thought that Rodriguans were our compatriots. Somebody ought to get sacked for this. Already, in many official statements and actions, Rodrigues is treated like a foreign country – as for instance in allowing direct flights to Plaine Corail from abroad, and authorising duty-free facilities on flights to that airport. If this trend continues, it will certainly become foreign in reality. If this should be the long-term objective, it would be better to allow it to happen right away as it a terrible drag on our budget. The relationship between Reunion and France seem to be much closer than between Rodrigues and ourselves. We shall lose the benefits of its territorial waters and the shelf around it, but the way things are going (or, more precisely, being allowed to go), we shall have lost them well before any exploitation starts. There are of course many around us who would jump at the opportunity of taking possession of the Island.